boy-scout

Historically, when the state has faced a revenue shortfall to maintain the status quo of government, the leges have found the political courage to increase taxes by a two-third’s vote more easily than a majority vote to make drastic cuts to the budget.

If the projected revenue shortfall for the fiscal year beginning on July 1, 2011 is anywhere near a billion plus dollars, it will require taxes to increased to balance it.

Can’t happen

Of course, everyone even vaguely familiar with Louisiana politics says that can’t happen in an election year.   They also point to the fact that the “Roads Scholar” will veto any tax increase if no other reason to maintain his alleged fiscal conservative bona fides to further his national political ambitions.

While Bobby Jindal claims to oppose tax increases, he certainly has no problem spending the proceeds as long as his fingerprints are not directly on the tax.  The latest example of that is the tax increase on college students and their parents that Jindal proposed, supported and signed during the last lege session.   Apparently, Jindal rationalizes supporting the tax since it merely authorizes it.   The college governing boards actually impose the tax.

Just to make sure that the boards imposed the tax, Jindal saw to it that the colleges received substantial budget cuts during the lege session, at the hands of the leges, of course.

The plan

The latest plan for increasing taxes over the threat of Jindal’s veto was revealed in Sunday’s Baton Rouge paper. ( story here)

Senate President Joel Chaisson came up with a tried-and-true method of raising taxes.

Chaisson, who is term-limited, borrowed a play from the old Edwin Edwards governmental playbook. He suggests temporarily suspending tax breaks.

If you are unaware, the upcoming Regular Lege Session is one in which taxes can be raised and tax breaks removed.

Since the Sales Tax exemptions are locked into the state constitution, that leaves few alternatives to provide timely revenues. It would likely mean eliminating personal income tax exemptions and deductions per the Stelly Tax and eliminating most business tax exemptions.

Under our constitution, tax exemptions, deductions, etc. can be suspended for a year and sixty days and such laws ARE NOT SUBJECT TO GUBERNATORIAL VETO.  It still requires a 2/3s vote of the lege, but it removes the “anti-tax” governor from the equation.

Maybe it can

I know, it’s an election year, but just for grins hear me out.

Here’s where the leges get the 2/3’s vote for taxes:

First, there are less than a handful of true fiscal conservatives in the lege. Most believe “bringing home the bacon” is what gets one re-elected.

Second, the Democrats in the lege are still the majority.   Anyone who voted for them knew or should have known that at some point they would vote for tax increases.

Third, add to the mix term-limited Republicans.

Fourth, add the Republican leges who have colleges or charity hospitals in or near their districts.  They know their constituents will forgive them for saving the primary job producers in their parishes and thus “saving the bacon.”

Finally, the leges convincingly tell the voters that it is a tax increase for just one year and taxes will be eliminated in just 12 months. Buddy Roemer called it “bridge financing.”  It sounds better than taxes and it worked for him.

Temporary taxes have enjoyed a long and successful run in Louisiana. EWE, Roemer, Mike Foster and Kathleen Blanco managed to pass them over and over during a 16-year period.  Each time they told us it was the last time.

In conclusion, the only thing worse, politically, than raising taxes in an election year, is not raising taxes and thus requiring drastic cuts the to the budget.

Perhaps, I’m wrong, but one will never get rich betting against history repeating itself in Louisiana.

Like the Boy Scout motto; be prepared!

C.B.