Below is a copy of a column that appeared in Tuesday’s Shreveport newspaper.
One may argue with some of the conclusions and one may argue with the suggested solutions, but the numbers are easily checked and we definitely have a problem.
New ethics laws, more government, more studies, more commissions, higher lege pay and wishful thinking aren’t going to change this disastrous trend. It is going to require some sacrifice by government in order for the state to survive.
This is the “elephant in the room” about which nobody in LA government is even mentioning much less looking for solutions.
C.B.
“Grow or Die”: Lessons From 200 Years of Louisiana Population History
When the 2010 Census is conducted and completed, 200 years of Louisiana’s population history will have been recorded, and many remarkable aspects of “who” Louisiana was and is are in that record. Included among these are our 228% population explosion in the 30 years before the Civil War, the near-halving of our black population from 1890 (50% of our population) through 1980 (down to 29%), and the relatively minor impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on our population trends.
Also dramatically documented is Louisiana’s descent to the bottom of national rankings in population growth for the past 25-30 years, with stagnation likely to soon turn to unprecedented loss. As important as that fact is on its very face, what is even more striking is that our recent such history is the opposite of the record of growth in our first 150 years.
Although Louisiana was not a state until 1812, we were nonetheless included in the 1810 Census, the third Constitutionally mandated enumeration conducted by our federal government. That census reported 7,239,881 residents of America’s then-17 states and assortment of official “territories.” Included was the Territory of Orleans - soon to be Louisiana - the home of 76,556 souls.
Between 1810 and 1950, the population in the United States multiplied 21-times, from 7,239,881 to 151,325,798, but Louisiana’s growth blew that away, multiplying 35-times - from 76,566 residents to 2,683,516.
We would never again experience such growth.
Between the 1950 Census and the most recent official Census estimates of July 1, 2007, the U.S. population nearly doubled, growing 99.3%, from 151,325,798 to 301,621,157. Louisiana’s growth during the period - from 2,683,516 to 4,293,204 - was a notably smaller increase of 59.98%.
The picture further worsened after 1980. As most of us living in Louisiana since the mid-1980s remember only too well, Louisiana and a handful of other states took the brunt of the decade’s oil-patch-dry-up. The damage to our economy spread quickly from our oil fields to our financial-service and real estate sectors, and within a very few years, a massive out-migration was underway. By the time of the 1990 Census, Louisiana was solidly in the teeth of the severe and extended downturn. Between that 1990 Census and the most recent data of July 1, 2007, Louisiana’s population barely grew at all, from 4,219,973 to 4,293,204, an increase of only 1.7%. During the same period, the national population grew more than 12-times as much, an increase of 21.3%, from 248,709,873 to 301,621,157. Our state’s 1.7% growth ranks us 48th among the 50 states in the period, with West Virginia and North Dakota faring worse.
Particularly damaging is the degree to which populations in regionally competitive states jumped past us during the period: Mississippi grew 13.4%, Arkansas 20.6%, Alabama 14.5%, Georgia 47.3%, Florida 41.1%, Tennessee 26.2%, and Texas 40.7%.
It is tempting to believe Katrina and Rita are largely the cause of our stagnation, but that is not the case. When data are analyzed for the period 1990 to July 1, 2005 - two months before Katrina and Rita hit - we find that Louisiana’s population growth-ranking improves only to 43rd rather than 48th. Specifically, as of July 1, 2005, Louisiana’s population had grown 6.53% since 1990, while the nation’s growth was nearly 3-times that, 18.97%. Again, we lagged our neighbors dramatically: the Mississippi population grew 12.72%, Arkansas 17.93%, Alabama 12.35%, Georgia 40.59%, Tennessee 22.8%, Florida 37.09%, and Texas 34.48%.
“Grow or die” and “demographics is destiny” are axiomatic in this context. The risk of sliding into irrecoverable non-competitiveness is clear, as is the underlying cause of our worsening condition. Simply put, far too many residents leave Louisiana, and far too few move in. The simplest test a city, parish, state or nation can face arises in the choice people make about where to live. How does the place in question compare and compete? It is this test Louisiana consistently fails.
There are but three population characteristics to be studied in drawing such conclusions: births, deaths and migration. As detailed in latest Census data for the period Census 2000 through July 1, 2007, Louisiana’s ratio of births-to-deaths is now below the national ratio, but not dramatically so: the national ratio is 1.69-births-to-a-death (1.69:1.00), and Louisiana’s is 1.51:1.00. Among all states, 27 have a better ratio than Louisiana, 20 have a worse ratio, and 2 have the same.
The clear and present danger for Louisiana is “net migration”- the number of people who move into Louisiana, minus the number who leave. Between the 1980 Census (reported in 1981) and the most recent Census estimates of July 1, 2007, Louisiana has averaged the net loss of 30,555 people per year, or about 84 residents each day, or 3½ each hour - for over a quarter-century. Again, if the impact of Katrina and Rita is a question, the period of Census 2000 through July 1, 2005 provides the answer: during that pre-hurricane period, Louisiana’s net migration rate ranked us 48th of 50 states, precisely the same as our 48th-of-50 ranking in the most recent July 1, 2007 data.
To complete this stark picture, consider Louisiana’s young people, who - in our dearth of in-migrants - must rescue us. In the quarter-century between 1980 and July 1, 2005 (pre-Katrina and Rita), our total population weakly rose 7.6% while the nation’s grew more than 4-times that much, 30.8%.
Stunningly, our young people aged birth-to-24 dropped -14.6%, from 1,926,000 to 1,645,389. (Not that we see ourselves as competitive with Texas, but its population 24 or younger during that period increased +38.95%.) No rescue from our young people and their birth-rates is in the pipeline.
Certainly, there is nothing resembling a quick-fix for our systemic and threatening condition. Neither, however, is the remedy difficult to identify and implement. Simply, our leaders must recognize that our tax structure guarantees this defect. Louisiana must have a new tax structure specifically designed to reverse our worsening out-migration, and induce in-migration.
The elimination of the state income tax - with revenue loss off-set by a combination of a “renter’s tax,” a consumption tax on certain major purchases, and business tax changes - might start the debate. Regardless of the content of that debate, the debate must start immediately, and that new tax structure must result. Otherwise, Louisiana’s destiny is, inarguably, anything but bright.
Elliott Stonecipher
evetsmanagement@msn.com
318-424-1695
1
CB
8:00 am
